The demand for raw materials fell, and the demand for chemical futures hit new lows.
affected by the decline of upstream crude oil futures and the continued decline of ethylene monomer prices, the domestic chemical futures prices have been falling recently. Affected by the decline of international oil prices over the weekend, chemical futures jumped short and opened low in the morning on Monday, and Dalian plastics, PVC and Zhengzhou PTA all hit new lows
however, boosted by the rebound of the stock market and stock index futures, chemical futures then rose in shock and closed slightly differentiated. Industry insiders pointed out that the continued decline of chemicals is affected by lower costs on the one hand, and the expected decline in demand on the other hand, and the future trend may be more affected by the macro
domestic chemical futures hit new lows
yesterday, domestic chemical futures collectively jumped short and opened low, but then they all rebounded slightly. The main contract of Dalian LLDPE futures closed at 9175 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the settlement price of the previous trading day; The main contract of PVC futures closed at 6860 yuan/ton, rising slightly by 0. Continue the experiment: click the experiment button to return to the experiment operation interface 29%； The main contract of Zhengzhou PTA futures closed at 7036 yuan/ton, up 0.77%
since this year, the performance of domestic chemical futures has been significantly weak. Take Dalian plastics as an example. In April, the futures price was still maintained at about 11900 yuan/ton, while yesterday's lowest price had reached 9060 yuan, down about 23%; Zhengzhou PTA also fell from the highest 8766 yuan/ton in April to the lowest 6920 yuan yesterday, down 21%; PVC also fell from 8090 yuan/ton in April to 6790 yuan, the lowest yesterday, a decrease of about 16%
recently, domestic PVC has continued its downturn, and the situation of sufficient supply and weak demand has not changed. Although PVC enterprises continue to reduce the ex factory price to promote shipment, and some devices are shut down or the operating load is reduced, the inventory and sales pressure of production enterprises are still large. According to relevant statistical data, the domestic PVC output in June was 987000 tons, an increase of 1.65% month on month, an increase of 10.3% over the same period in 2009; The monthly cumulative output was 5.538 million tons, an increase of 17.2% over the same period in 2009, and the spot supply is still sufficient. In terms of demand, due to the dual impact of the unchanged national regulation policies on the real estate market and the poor export environment, the operating rate of downstream PVC pipes, profiles and other enterprises continued to decline, and the demand for PVC continued to shrink
Shihua financial news Zhang Yafeng pointed out that the prices of upstream crude oil futures and ethylene monomers continued to decline, which continued to have a negative impact on the mentality of the domestic chemical market. LLDPE spot market transactions are still dominated by stalemate. Due to the small volume of domestic petrochemical manufacturers recently, the supply pressure on the spot market has eased, but the weak supply and demand side may not be effectively improved in the short term. Therefore, LLDPE market is expected to continue to be dominated by weak consolidation in the future. At present, PTA social supply pressure is still large, and manufacturers are driven by interests. Recently, they have maintained a high production load, resulting in a backlog of manufacturers and social inventory
macro impact or greater than fundamentals
"the continuous decline of chemical futures is mainly due to the impact of the decline of raw materials. In addition, the market is also worried about whether the macro economy can improve in the second half of the year, which also makes the demand expectation decline". Jiangchanjie of GF futures pointed out that the price of ethylene, the main raw material of plastics, has been falling all the way, PX, the raw material of PTA, has also been put into centralized production, and 70% of the demand for pvc6 comes from real estate. Therefore, it is difficult for them to get rid of the weakness, "in the second half of the year, the macro impact will be greater than the fundamental impact"
Su Wu futures Lu Hui pointed out that on the whole, PTA is still in the "three high" situation of high profit, high opening rate and high inventory, and the market continues to be worried about the policy tightening and foreign trade situation. If the oil price does not rebound significantly, PTA will still tend to be weak, and there is no condition for reversal
Yang Su of suwu futures believes that although PVC futures are weak due to cost support, the probability of a sharp decline in the short term is not large. It is expected that in the short term, looking at the successful footprints of the aluminum exhibition that has been held for 9 sessions, there may be anti trim strips or other decorative components in the central console or dashboard, but the strength will not be large, and the situation is still weak, and 7000 yuan will become a short-term pressure level
in the medium term, the new plant will be put in Changzhou in response to the government's request for "chemical enterprises to enter the park". Song Jian said that from the trend of Dalian plastics, it can be seen that bulls have obvious concerns at 9200. Especially in the case of strong A-share trend in the afternoon, the l1009 contract did not dare to rise rashly. Therefore, it is expected to remain weak and volatile, and it is still recommended to maintain a short thinking in operation
Ma genmei of Nanhua futures also pointed out that the current trend of chemicals is closely related to the macro economy, but he is more optimistic. "It is unlikely that the economic growth will slow down in the second half of the year. From the technical and fundamental aspects, it has the conditions for a weak rebound, but it is not a reversal."
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