The hottest raw materials continued to rise, and o

2022-09-22
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Raw materials continue to rise, orders decline precipitously, 2017 paper industry may face the test of life and death

release date: Source: packaging zone editor: Arnold browse times: 6570 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: China's paper and packaging printing industry is about to end its journey in 2016 in the storm of rising prices and environmental protection. In the past year, this industrial chain has experienced violent turbulence, the fate of countless entrepreneurs and practitioners has been rewritten, and the industry pattern has also undergone profound changes

[China Packaging] under the pressure of price rise tide and environmental protection storm, China's papermaking and packaging printing industry will end its journey in 2016 in the storm. In the past year, this industrial chain has experienced violent turbulence, the fate of countless entrepreneurs and practitioners has been rewritten, and the industry pattern has also undergone profound changes. In a word, in this year, the upstream manufacturing can be adjusted to a place where the test piece is 1 (2) mm away from the upper pressing plate. The paper industry is very beautiful. The middle paperboard factory has made a fortune, and the end three-level carton industry is full of chicken feathers

what is the market prospect of this industrial chain in 2017? What is the price trend of wrapping paper? How does the industrial pattern change

multiple adverse factors are superimposed, and paper packaging orders may decline from the cliff.

in the past four years, although the transfer of manufacturing industry to Southeast Asia has led to a sharp decline in export orders, express packaging has become an independent force, and FMCG packaging is generally stable, ensuring the stability of China's paper packaging market. However, in 2017, in view of the exhaustion of various positive factors and the superposition of multiple liquidation crises, the paper packaging market may fall precipitously

foreign trade orders have decreased sharply

the price rise of various raw materials since September 2016 is causing a fatal impact on the export industries such as home appliances, furniture, textiles and clothing. Packaging materials, hardware, components, panels, circuit boards, sponges, fabrics and other materials rose sharply, and foreign trade orders have been negative profits. Because many foreign trade orders generally take more than a month, but raw materials are priced one day, many enterprises dare not accept orders. At the same time, Chinese export enterprises significantly increased their quotations, resulting in a large number of foreign trade orders transferred to Southeast Asia. Coupled with the fact that the three economies, Europe, the United States and Japan, which occupy the vast majority of China's export markets, do not recognize China's market economy status, China's export processing industry is likely to decline in 2017

domestic demand orders are difficult to boost

under the precarious export situation, the paper packaging industry relies more on stabilizing domestic demand. However, affected by the real estate foam, countless middle-class and even ordinary wage earners have been kidnapped by real estate and overdrawn the consumption of the next 10 or 20 years. In the past two years, China's FMCG market has surged and fell. Under the circumstances of accelerated capital withdrawal, the rise in raw material prices transmitted to end products, and the intensification of unemployment, the possibility of accelerated decline in packaging orders for food, beverages, household chemicals, clothing, etc. in 2017 is increasing

the real estate foam has become a time bomb

there is no doubt that real estate has become the biggest obstacle to China's economic bottom rebound and structural adjustment. Considering the serious surplus of the real estate industry, the de stocking of real estate enterprises with a national brand background, the planned merger of Baosteel and WISCO, and the lingering nightmare weather in the north, the real estate industry is likely to undergo a fundamental reversal in 2017. As a result, the packaging orders of construction ceramics, sanitary ware, building materials, hardware, home appliances, furniture, lighting and other industries will fall precipitously

e-commerce packaging may end its high growth

in recent years, express packaging has experienced a blowout, almost supporting half of the carton industry. The express delivery industry in China reached 9.2 billion pieces in 2013, 14 billion pieces in 2014, 20 billion pieces in 2015 and 30 billion pieces in 2016. 30billion pieces of express delivery will generate a packaging demand of 30billion waybills, 4.3 billion textile bags, 12billion plastic bags, 4.5 billion paper envelopes, 14.4 billion cartons, 24.5 billion meters of tape, and 4.3 billion internal buffer packages. By 2017, the rapid growth of e-commerce packaging may come to an abrupt end when inflation, the property market foam and the collapse of the real economy can be customized as needed, which seriously restricts people's consumption capacity

analysis of the price trend of base paper in 2017

in 2016, under the overall weak market demand, affected by the paper industry's capacity reduction, the end of the previous two consecutive 20% reduction in G production and production restrictions, and the tide of environmental protection, Niuka, tile paper, white card, etc. all set new record highs, which was really unexpected. As for the problem of "paper shortage" that makes everyone talk about the color change of paper, Bao is very dismissive. In fact, it is not that the supply of base paper exceeds the demand, but an excuse and means for the paper and paperboard industry to restructure the sales for several periods and shift the cost from Bengali to the downstream

in December 2016, although the paper industry in the north and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River stopped production in large numbers for rectification, the signs of paper shortage were less obvious, proving that the current tense situation of base paper supply no longer exists. As many brands have released carton orders in advance under inflation expectations, the first three months of 2017 may be the weakest quarter in more than three decades. However, due to the increasing concentration of paper production capacity, the paper mill will be shut down for renovation during the Spring Festival and modified by supporting special compatible technologies, so the paper price may not fall generally

in the second half of 2017, with the accelerated deterioration of China's economy, the RMB exchange rate may fluctuate again. Even with the complete shift of the national real estate policy, inflation is still coming like a flood. At this time, there may be extreme situations in which the soaring paper price and the order cliff occur at the same time

changes in the pattern of the paper packaging industry chain in 2017

due to various liquidation crises and complex domestic and international economic and political situations that China is currently facing, all walks of life, including the paper packaging industry chain, will face major changes in the coming year

for China's paper industry, the downturn has continued since 2010, and the golden age has long passed. The trend of environmental protection in 2016 may completely eliminate most small and medium-sized paper enterprises, and the industry concentration is more obvious. In 2017, although the market demand may shrink significantly, with the pricing power in hand, it can be in an invincible position. In addition, some large-scale papermaking projects under construction may be forced to suspend

the cardboard industry in the midstream is undoubtedly a winner in 2016. The net profit of some manufacturers soared from 8% to more than 30%, and successfully shortened the number of customers to less than one month, which can be described as a boom. However, the paperboard industry may not be so lucky in 2017. On the one hand, the closure of a large number of tertiary carton factories has led to the transfer of orders to secondary carton factories. On the other hand, the paperboard industry is likely to face the severe test of the sharp rise in upstream base paper and overcapacity

the rise in prices in 2016 has dealt a fatal blow to the carton industry, and a large number of tertiary carton factories will inevitably shut down after the Spring Festival. Although the secondary carton enterprises took advantage of the situation to accept some orders from the tertiary carton factory, most of these orders are chicken ribs, which is of little significance. Affected by exports and domestic demand, it is still difficult for secondary factories to transfer costs to customers. The secondary carton factory in 2017 will be even more difficult than that in 2016

from the history of the past decades, we must not underestimate the viability of China's private enterprises. Perhaps after passing the test of life and death in 2017, the paper packaging industry will usher in a new turnaround. Because they will be greeted by the new air outlet brought by the new agriculture (the sixth industry). Judging from the recent high-level setting of the central economic work conference, the participation of a large number of powerful capital in land circulation, and the top entrepreneurs rushing to enter the new agriculture, a new era has roared

in the paper packaging industry, some industry elites with a keen sense of smell are adjusting their direction from the red sea of traditional packaging to the new blue sea of agricultural products packaging, cold chain packaging and intelligent packaging

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